Liga de Ascenso predictions
Costa Rica · second tier · 14 teams · table updated 3 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga de Ascenso match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga de Ascenso in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga de Ascenso fixtures
- 4 Oct · 18:00Aserri FCvGuadalupe FCNo pick yet
- 4 Oct · 18:00ADR JicaralvAD CofutpaHome or DrawSolid
- 4 Oct · 18:00Santa AnavCariari PocociOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Oct · 21:00Cariari PococivFutbol Consultants MoraviaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00AD CarmelitavGuadalupe FCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00CS UruguayvSanta AnaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00Municipal GreciavAserri FCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCvAserri FCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00Quepos CambutevAD SarchíNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 21:00Santa Cruz FCvADR JicaralNo pick yet
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 | |
| 2 |  ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 | |
| 3 |  Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Santa Ana | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 | |
| 6 |  AD Carmelita | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Cariari Pococi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 | |
| 9 |  AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Futbol Consultants Moravia | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | |
| 11 |  CS Uruguay | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 | |
| 14 |  AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
Official Liga de Ascenso table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-03.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga de Ascenso record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 62.5% | 75.0% | +12.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 83.5% | 85.7% | +2.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 24 | 60.6% | 58.3% | -2.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga de Ascenso matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga de Ascenso results
- 2 Oct · 21:00Futbol Consultants Moravia0-3AD CarmelitaNo pick
- 2 Oct · 2:00Cariari Pococi1-2Santa AnaOver 2.5✓
- 29 Sept · 2:00Cariari Pococi1-1CS UruguayOver 2.5✗
- 27 Sept · 22:00AD Cofutpa3-1Santa Cruz FCOver 2.5✓
- 27 Sept · 20:00Guadalupe FC2-2Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCNo pick
- 27 Sept · 20:00AD Sarchí0-1ADR JicaralNo pick
- 27 Sept · 19:00Quepos Cambute1-0Municipal GreciaHome or Draw✓
- 26 Sept · 21:00Futbol Consultants Moravia1-0Aserri FCNo pick
- 26 Sept · 3:00AD Carmelita1-0Santa AnaOver 2.5✗
- 24 Sept · 20:00Cariari Pococi2-1Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCNo pick
About Liga de Ascenso
Liga de Ascenso is the second tier of Costa Rica football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.57 goals per game over 63 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 22% drawn. Aserri FC lead the table on 24 points from 16 games.
How the model handles Liga de Ascenso
Every Liga de Ascenso fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 39 Liga de Ascenso tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.1% on average and landing 66.6%. Its best-calibrated Liga de Ascenso market so far is home or draw (83.5% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga de Ascenso predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga de Ascenso table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga de Ascenso market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga de Ascenso tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.5% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga de Ascenso fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga de Ascenso by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.