How are these Primera A predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera A table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.7% claimed against 85.7% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera A predictions

Colombia · top flight · table updated 2 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera A match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera A in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera A fixtures

Primera A table

Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31	24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29	25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25	15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29	22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26	26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20	16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20	25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17	20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13	27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22	35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15	32	-17	10

Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	7	3	1	22	6	+16	24
2	Atletico Nacional	10	7	1	2	21	10	+11	22
3	Deportivo Cali	11	6	3	2	17	8	+9	21
4	Millonarios	13	5	6	2	18	11	+7	21
5	Bucaramanga	10	5	5	0	17	9	+8	20
6	Independiente Medellin	11	6	2	3	19	15	+4	20
7	Santa Fe	11	5	4	2	18	12	+6	19
8	Deportes Tolima	11	5	3	3	15	13	+2	18
9	Llaneros	11	4	2	5	14	14	0	14
10	Once Caldas	11	3	3	5	14	15	-1	12
11	Internacional de Bogota	12	2	6	4	13	17	-4	12
12	Cucuta	11	3	3	5	11	19	-8	12
13	Águilas Doradas	10	2	5	3	12	15	-3	11
14	Chico	10	3	2	5	10	18	-8	11
15	Alianza Valledupar	11	3	2	6	11	21	-10	11
16	Junior	10	2	3	5	15	17	-2	9
17	Fortaleza FC	11	1	6	4	13	18	-5	9
18	Deportivo Pereira	10	1	5	4	7	13	-6	8
19	Deportivo Pasto	11	2	2	7	9	18	-9	8
20	Jaguares	10	1	4	5	11	18	-7	7

Post season qualification

Official Primera A table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.

This season in numbers

2.57

goals per game (312 matches)

55%

both teams scored

49%

over 2.5 goals

76%

over 1.5 goals

24%

over 3.5 goals

45%

home wins

31%

draws

24%

away wins

The model's Primera A record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	19	62.3%	57.9%	-4.4
Home or draw≥ 80%	28	83.7%	85.7%	+2.0
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	0	—	—	—
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera A matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera A results

About Primera A

Primera A is the top flight of Colombia football played across 2 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.57 goals per game over 312 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 49% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 31% drawn. The table is published as Apertura, Clausura.

How the model handles Primera A

Every Primera A fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 47 Primera A tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.0% on average and landing 74.5%. Its best-calibrated Primera A market so far is home or draw (83.7% claimed against 85.7% hit over 28 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera A predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera A table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera A market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera A tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.7% claimed against 85.7% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera A fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera A by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.

Other Colombia competitions

Primera B