First League predictions
Bulgaria · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 23 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every First League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First League in the Bet Finder.
This week's First League fixtures
- 10 Oct · 13:00Botev VratsavSpartak VarnaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:30Lokomotiv SofiavLokomotiv PlovdivNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 18:00Botev PlovdivvSlavia SofiaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00Septemvri SofiavDunav RuseNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:30Cherno More VarnavLevski SofiaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 18:00CSKA 1948vCSKA SofiaNo pick yet
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 | |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 | |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 | |
| 5 |  Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 | |
| 7 |  Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
- Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
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Official First League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-23.
This season in numbers
The model's First League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 13 | 64.0% | 76.9% | +12.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 19 | 83.4% | 89.5% | +6.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 57.3% | 66.7% | +9.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 79.5% | 100.0% | +20.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 60.5% | 60.0% | -0.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled First League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent First League results
- 20 Sept · 15:45Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1CSKA SofiaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 13:15Spartak Varna0-1Lokomotiv SofiaHome or Draw✗
- 19 Sept · 17:00Arda Kardzhali1-1Cherno More VarnaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:30Septemvri Sofia0-3Botev PlovdivNo pick
- 19 Sept · 12:00Dunav Ruse2-2Botev VratsaHome or Draw✓
- 18 Sept · 18:00Slavia Sofia1-2CSKA 1948No pick
- 16 Sept · 17:00Lokomotiv Sofia0-2CSKA SofiaAway or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 18:30Ludogorets2-1Septemvri SofiaHome or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 18:30Botev Plovdiv2-0Lokomotiv PlovdivNo pick
- 13 Sept · 15:45Botev Vratsa0-0Levski SofiaAway or Draw✓
About First League
First League is the top flight of Bulgaria football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.67 goals per game over 69 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 25% drawn. Levski Sofia lead the table on 25 points from 9 games.
How the model handles First League
Every First League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 49 First League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.2% on average and landing 81.6%. Its best-calibrated First League market so far is over 2.5 (60.5% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled First League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.5% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are First League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.