Bundesliga predictions
Austria · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 18 | |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 | |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Ried | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 | |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 | |
| 7 |  WSG Wattens | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | |
| 9 |  Grazer AK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | |
| 12 |  SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
- Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
- Bundesliga (Relegation Group)
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% | +10.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 83.8% | 100.0% | +16.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 57.2% | 60.0% | +2.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 80.6% | 100.0% | +19.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 9 | 59.7% | 44.4% | -15.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 20 Sept · 16:00Red Bull Salzburg3-0Sturm GrazOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 13:30Ried4-1Wolfsberger ACOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 13:30TSV Hartberg3-3Lask LinzNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:30Grazer AK2-2Austria ViennaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 16:00Austria Lustenau2-0SCR AltachNo pick
- 18 Sept · 18:30Rapid Vienna3-0WSG WattensNo pick
- 13 Sept · 16:00Sturm Graz2-1Lask LinzNo pick
- 13 Sept · 13:30WSG Wattens2-2TSV HartbergNo pick
- 13 Sept · 13:30Austria Vienna2-1Austria LustenauNo pick
- 12 Sept · 18:30Wolfsberger AC0-3Rapid ViennaNo pick
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Austria football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.07 goals per game over 42 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 52% with 21% drawn. Rapid Vienna lead the table on 18 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 27 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 70.4%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is away win (57.2% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 57.2% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.