Queensland NPL predictions
Australia · 11th tier · 12 teams · table updated 14 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Queensland NPL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Queensland NPL in the Bet Finder.
This week's Queensland NPL fixtures
No Queensland NPL fixtures in the next 7 days.
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57 | 22 | +35 | 53 | |
| 2 |  Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 45 | |
| 3 |  Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 39 | |
| 4 |  Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 | |
| 5 |  Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 34 | |
| 6 |  WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 26 | |
| 9 |  Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 22 | |
| 10 |  Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 21 | |
| 11 |  Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 16 |
Official Queensland NPL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-14.
This season in numbers
The model's Queensland NPL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 70.9% | 33.3% | -37.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 85.5% | 66.7% | -18.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 54.9% | 40.0% | -14.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 76.7% | 60.0% | -16.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 21 | 63.7% | 52.4% | -11.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 5 | 64.6% | 60.0% | -4.6 |
Settled Queensland NPL matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Queensland NPL results
- 12 Sept · 10:00Lions1-0Peninsula PowerOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 8:00Peninsula Power3-2Moreton City ExcelsiorOver 2.5✓
- 30 Aug · 8:00Lions4-1Peninsula PowerOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 8:00Moreton City Excelsior2-0Gold Coast KnightsOver 2.5✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30Gold Coast United2-0Eastern SuburbsBTTS✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30WDSC Wolves0-3Magic UnitedHome or Draw✗
- 14 Aug · 10:30Olympic1-2Rochedale RoversBTTS✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Brisbane Roar II1-2Gold Coast KnightsAway or Draw✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Peninsula Power2-2Brisbane CityOver 2.5✓
- 14 Aug · 10:30Moreton City Excelsior0-2LionsAway or Draw✓
About Queensland NPL
Queensland NPL is the 11th tier of Australia football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.65 goals per game over 136 matches: both teams scored in 65%, 75% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 15% drawn. Lions lead the table on 53 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Queensland NPL
Every Queensland NPL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 42 Queensland NPL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.4% on average and landing 52.4%. Its best-calibrated Queensland NPL market so far is btts (64.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Queensland NPL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Queensland NPL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Queensland NPL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Queensland NPL tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 64.6% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Queensland NPL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Queensland NPL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.