How are these Primera División predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera División table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.2% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera División predictions

Venezuela · top flight · table updated 24 Sept

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera División fixtures

Primera División table

Primera Division: Tabla Anual

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	24	16	5	3	41	19	+22	53
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	24	14	5	5	41	26	+15	47
3	Deportivo La Guaira	24	12	7	5	36	22	+14	43
4	UCV	24	11	5	8	36	31	+5	38
5	Carabobo FC	24	9	10	5	35	22	+13	37
6	Portuguesa FC	24	9	10	5	34	24	+10	37
7	Puerto Cabello	24	9	9	6	31	23	+8	36
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	24	10	6	8	33	30	+3	36
9	Caracas FC	24	5	11	8	24	31	-7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	7	4	13	26	35	-9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	6	7	11	24	35	-11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	24	7	4	13	30	46	-16	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	3	6	15	21	44	-23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	24	3	5	16	21	45	-24	14

Primera Division: Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo La Guaira	13	7	6	0	15	6	+9	27
2	Metropolitanos FC	13	7	4	2	17	10	+7	25
3	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	7	3	3	17	12	+5	24
4	UCV	13	7	2	4	24	20	+4	23
5	Portuguesa FC	13	5	5	3	20	12	+8	20
6	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	6	2	5	21	18	+3	20
7	Carabobo FC	13	4	7	2	23	14	+9	19
8	Puerto Cabello	13	4	5	4	16	14	+2	17
9	Zamora FC	13	4	5	4	14	14	0	17
10	Caracas FC	13	3	6	4	15	17	-2	15
11	Rayo Zuliano	13	4	2	7	13	23	-10	14
12	Monagas SC	13	3	2	8	14	22	-8	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	2	3	8	15	25	-10	9
14	Trujillanos FC	13	0	4	9	9	26	-17	4

Primera Division: Apertura - Quadrangular

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Carabobo FC	6	3	2	1	10	5	+5	11
1	Puerto Cabello	6	3	1	2	8	7	+1	10
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	6	3	2	1	8	5	+3	11
2	Portuguesa FC	6	2	2	2	7	8	-1	8
3	Deportivo La Guaira	6	1	4	1	5	5	0	7
3	Metropolitanos FC	6	2	2	2	5	7	-2	8
4	Estudiantes de Merida FC	6	1	0	5	2	8	-6	3
4	UCV	6	1	3	2	8	8	0	6

Primera Division: Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	11	9	1	1	24	9	+15	28
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	11	7	2	2	24	14	+10	23
3	Puerto Cabello	11	5	4	2	15	9	+6	19
4	Carabobo FC	11	5	3	3	12	8	+4	18
5	Portuguesa FC	11	4	5	2	14	12	+2	17
6	Deportivo La Guaira	11	5	1	5	21	16	+5	16
7	Estudiantes de Merida FC	11	4	4	3	12	12	0	16
8	UCV	11	4	3	4	12	11	+1	15
9	Monagas SC	11	4	2	5	12	13	-1	14
10	Caracas FC	11	2	5	4	9	14	-5	11
11	Rayo Zuliano	11	3	2	6	17	23	-6	11
12	Trujillanos FC	11	3	2	6	12	18	-6	11
13	Zamora FC	11	2	2	7	10	21	-11	8
14	Anzoátegui FC	11	1	2	8	6	20	-14	5

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga FUTVE 2
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Final)
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Clausura - Quadrangular)

Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.

This season in numbers

2.55

goals per game (194 matches)

55%

both teams scored

44%

over 2.5 goals

72%

over 1.5 goals

24%

over 3.5 goals

43%

home wins

28%

draws

28%

away wins

The model's Primera División record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	5	61.2%	60.0%	-1.2
Home or draw≥ 80%	10	81.9%	90.0%	+8.1
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	1	57.7%	100.0%	+42.3
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera División results

About Primera División

Primera División is the top flight of Venezuela football played across 4 groups. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.55 goals per game over 194 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 44% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 28% drawn. The table is published as Primera Division: Tabla Anual, Primera Division: Apertura, Primera Division: Apertura - Quadrangular, Primera Division: Clausura.

How the model handles Primera División

Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 16 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.9% on average and landing 81.3%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (61.2% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera División predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera División table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 61.2% claimed against 60.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.