Premier League predictions
Uganda · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 20 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 7 Oct · 14:00KatakavSC VillaNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 14:00MaroonsvLugaziNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 14:00NtugasazevMbarara CityNo pick yet
- 7 Oct · 14:00KitaravKigezi HomeBoyzNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 14:00Blacks PowervVipersNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 14:00NECvExpressNo pick yet
- 8 Oct · 14:00UPDFvBULNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 15:00Entebbe UPPCvPoliceNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 18:00URAvKCCANo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00KatakavKitaraNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00VipersvMaroonsNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Mbarara CityvBlacks PowerNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 | |
| 2 |  NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 | |
| 3 |  SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 | |
| 4 |  Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 6 |  Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | |
| 8 |  UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | |
| 10 |  KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | |
| 12 |  Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | |
| 13 |  URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 |  Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | |
| 17 |  Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-20.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 59.7% | 75.0% | +15.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.6% | 71.4% | -11.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 19 Sept · 18:00Vipers3-0NtugasazeNo pick
- 17 Sept · 18:00Express1-1KitaraNo pick
- 17 Sept · 15:00UPDF1-0MaroonsNo pick
- 16 Sept · 14:00KCCA1-0KatakaNo pick
- 16 Sept · 14:00Mbarara City0-0Entebbe UPPCNo pick
- 16 Sept · 14:00Lugazi0-2PoliceHome or Draw✗
- 15 Sept · 14:00SC Villa3-0Kigezi HomeBoyzNo pick
- 15 Sept · 14:00NEC4-1URANo pick
- 15 Sept · 14:00BUL2-1Blacks PowerHome or Draw✓
- 11 Sept · 14:00Mbarara City0-0NECNo pick
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Uganda football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.03 goals per game over 32 matches: both teams scored in 38%, 38% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 22% drawn. BUL lead the table on 12 points from 4 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 11 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.3% on average and landing 72.7%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is home or draw (82.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.6% claimed against 71.4% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.