Thai League 1 predictions
Thailand · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 23 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Thai League 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Thai League 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's Thai League 1 fixtures
- 9 Oct · 13:00RatchaburivSukhothai FCNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:00BG Pathum UnitedvAyutthaya FCNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 12:30Buriram UnitedvRayong FCNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Uthai ThanivRasi Salai UnitedNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 12:00Lamphun WarriorvBangkok UnitedNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 12:00PrachuapvChiangrai UnitedNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 12:30Sisaket UnitedvChonburi FCNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00Port FCvPattaniNo pick yet
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 | |
| 2 |  Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | |
| 3 |  Uthai Thani | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | |
| 4 |  Prachuap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | |
| 5 |  Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | |
| 8 |  BG Pathum United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Ratchaburi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Chiangrai United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Pattani | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | |
| 12 |  Sukhothai FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | |
| 13 |  Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | |
| 15 |  Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Chonburi FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
- Relegation - Thai League 2
Official Thai League 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-23.
This season in numbers
The model's Thai League 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 64.8% | 80.0% | +15.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 84.3% | 100.0% | +15.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 60.3% | 50.0% | -10.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Thai League 1 matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Thai League 1 results
- 20 Sept · 13:00Bangkok United3-2BG Pathum UnitedNo pick
- 20 Sept · 12:30Sukhothai FC2-1Port FCNo pick
- 20 Sept · 12:00Rayong FC1-1RatchaburiNo pick
- 20 Sept · 12:00Chonburi FC0-1Buriram UnitedOver 2.5✗
- 19 Sept · 13:00Chiangrai United0-1Sisaket UnitedNo pick
- 19 Sept · 12:30Pattani0-3PrachuapNo pick
- 19 Sept · 12:00Rasi Salai United1-1Lamphun WarriorNo pick
- 18 Sept · 13:00Ayutthaya FC1-2Uthai ThaniNo pick
- 13 Sept · 13:00Chonburi FC2-3Rayong FCNo pick
- 13 Sept · 12:00Prachuap1-0Sukhothai FCHome or Draw✓
About Thai League 1
Thai League 1 is the top flight of Thailand football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.58 goals per game over 24 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 17% drawn. Buriram United lead the table on 7 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Thai League 1
Every Thai League 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 16 Thai League 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.0% on average and landing 81.3%. Its best-calibrated Thai League 1 market so far is home win (64.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Thai League 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Thai League 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Thai League 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Thai League 1 tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 64.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Thai League 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Thai League 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.