Super Liga predictions
Serbia · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Super Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Super Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Super Liga fixtures
- 10 Oct · 17:00CukarickivMacvaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00IMT Novi BeogradvRadnik SurdulicaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00Mladost LucanivOFK BeogradNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00FK PartizanvNovi PazarNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00Radnicki 1923vFK Crvena ZvezdaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00Radnicki NISvVojvodinaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 17:00ZemunvŽelezničar PančevoNo pick yet
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | +21 | 28 | |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 22 | |
| 3 |  Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 | |
| 4 |  Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 | |
| 5 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 | |
| 7 |  Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 | |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 | |
| 9 |  Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 | |
| 10 |  OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 | |
| 11 |  FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
- Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)
- Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)
Official Super Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Super Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 66.7% | 80.0% | +13.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 84.8% | 77.8% | -7.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 63.6% | 57.1% | -6.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 81.7% | 85.7% | +4.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 13 | 61.6% | 69.2% | +7.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Super Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Super Liga results
- 20 Sept · 19:00Železničar Pančevo2-1CukarickiNo pick
- 20 Sept · 18:00FK Crvena Zvezda3-0Radnicki NISHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Macva1-2Mladost LucaniNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:00Radnik Surdulica4-4FK PartizanAway or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 18:00OFK Beograd3-5Radnicki 1923No pick
- 19 Sept · 16:00Vojvodina1-1IMT Novi BeogradNo pick
- 19 Sept · 16:00Novi Pazar2-2ZemunNo pick
- 17 Sept · 19:00Železničar Pančevo1-2FK Crvena ZvezdaAway or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 18:00Zemun1-1Radnik SurdulicaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 18:00IMT Novi Beograd0-1FK Crvena ZvezdaAway or Draw✓
About Super Liga
Super Liga is the top flight of Serbia football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.68 goals per game over 68 matches: both teams scored in 47%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 52% with 27% drawn. FK Crvena Zvezda lead the table on 28 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Super Liga
Every Super Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 46 Super Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.6% on average and landing 73.9%. Its best-calibrated Super Liga market so far is away or draw (81.7% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Super Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Super Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Super Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Super Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 81.7% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Super Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Super Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.