Stars League predictions
Qatar · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Stars League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Stars League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Stars League fixtures
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sadd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | |
| 3 |  Al Shamal | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 | |
| 4 |  Al-Arabi SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | |
| 5 |  Al-Duhail SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Lusail City | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 | |
| 7 |  Al Shahaniya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 | |
| 8 |  Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Al-Gharafa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Qatar SC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | |
| 11 |  Al Wakrah | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | |
| 12 |  Al-Sailiya | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 0 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
- Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
- QSL (Relegation)
- Relegation - QSL 2
Official Stars League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's Stars League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 60.4% | 80.0% | +19.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 83.4% | 100.0% | +16.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 68.4% | 100.0% | +31.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% | +17.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 23 | 62.5% | 56.5% | -6.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Stars League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Stars League results
- 12 Sept · 17:15Al-Duhail SC1-1Al ShahaniyaOver 2.5✗
- 12 Sept · 15:00Al-Arabi SC0-0Qatar SCOver 2.5✗
- 11 Sept · 17:15Al-Rayyan SC3-0Al Ahli DohaOver 2.5✓
- 11 Sept · 15:00Al-Gharafa0-0Lusail CityOver 2.5✗
- 10 Sept · 17:15Al-Sailiya3-6Al SaddAway or Draw✓
- 10 Sept · 15:00Al Shamal1-1Al WakrahOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 17:15Al Sadd4-1Al-GharafaOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Al-Rayyan SC1-1Al-Duhail SCOver 2.5✗
- 4 Sept · 17:15Lusail City4-0Al WakrahOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 15:00Al Shamal4-2Al ShahaniyaOver 2.5✓
About Stars League
Stars League is the top flight of Qatar football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.42 goals per game over 24 matches: both teams scored in 67%, 58% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 38% drawn. Al Sadd lead the table on 12 points from 4 games.
How the model handles Stars League
Every Stars League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 36 Stars League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.4% on average and landing 69.4%. Its best-calibrated Stars League market so far is over 2.5 (62.5% claimed against 56.5% hit over 23 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Stars League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Stars League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Stars League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Stars League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.5% claimed against 56.5% hit over 23 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Stars League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Stars League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.