How are these Primera División predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera División table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.1% claimed against 64.3% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera División predictions

Peru · top flight · table updated 1 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera División fixtures

11 Oct · 21:30Sport BoysvAlianza AtleticoNo pick yet

Primera División table

Primera Division: Tabla Anual

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	14	7	6	43	31	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	+15	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	14	3	10	40	38	+2	45
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	-9	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	+6	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	-7	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	-10	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	-5	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	-3	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	-11	27
16	ADT	27	6	7	14	29	42	-13	25
17	UCV Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	-17	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	-18	15(-5)

Primera Division: Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	30	8	+22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	25	21	+4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	34	22	+12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	24	15	+9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	29	20	+9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	21	24	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	21	18	+3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	20	18	+2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	18	20	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	22	21	+1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	15	19	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	28	30	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	21	26	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	17	24	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	23	28	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	12	18	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	21	31	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	22	40	-18	16

Primera Division: Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Garcilaso	10	7	1	2	18	6	+12	22
2	Universitario	10	6	2	2	19	16	+3	20
3	Sporting Cristal	10	6	1	3	20	10	+10	19
4	Alianza Atletico	10	6	1	3	20	17	+3	19
5	Sport Huancayo	10	6	1	3	16	13	+3	19
6	Juan Pablo II College	10	5	3	2	20	12	+8	18
7	FBC Melgar	10	5	3	2	16	9	+7	18
8	Sport Boys	10	5	3	2	14	7	+7	18
9	Cusco	10	6	0	4	19	14	+5	18
10	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14	10	+4	16
11	Atletico Grau	10	5	1	4	14	13	+1	16
12	FC Cajamarca	10	3	1	6	18	24	-6	10
13	Comerciantes Unidos	10	2	3	5	17	18	-1	9
14	Cienciano	10	2	2	6	12	18	-6	8
15	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	10	2	2	6	11	24	-13	8
16	UCV Moquegua	10	1	4	5	7	17	-10	7
17	ADT	10	1	2	7	7	21	-14	5
18	UTC Cajamarca	10	0	2	8	11	24	-13	2

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)

Official Primera División table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to UTC Cajamarca · updated 2026-10-01.

This season in numbers

2.78

goals per game (243 matches)

59%

both teams scored

54%

over 2.5 goals

75%

over 1.5 goals

33%

over 3.5 goals

53%

home wins

24%

draws

24%

away wins

The model's Primera División record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	28	65.1%	64.3%	-0.8
Home or draw≥ 80%	30	84.8%	83.3%	-1.5
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	16	59.9%	68.8%	+8.9
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Primera División results

About Primera División

Primera División is the top flight of Peru football played across 3 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.78 goals per game over 243 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 53% with 24% drawn. The table is published as Primera Division: Tabla Anual, Primera Division: Apertura, Primera Division: Clausura. UTC Cajamarca (-5) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.

How the model handles Primera División

Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 74 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.0% on average and landing 73.0%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (65.1% claimed against 64.3% hit over 28 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera División predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera División table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.1% claimed against 64.3% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.