National Division predictions
Luxembourg · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 20 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every National Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's National Division fixtures
- 11 Oct · 15:00FC Differdange 03vRésidence WalferdangeNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00Etzella EttelbruckvF91 DudelangeNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00Swift HesperangevVictoria RosportNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00US HostertvProgres NiederkornNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00UN Kaerjeng 97vAS Jeunesse EschNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00Racing FC Union LuxembourgvAtert BissenNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00US RumelangevUS Mondorf-les-bainsNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 15:00WiltzvUNA StrassenNo pick yet
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 | |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 | |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 | |
| 6 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 | |
| 9 |  US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 | |
| 10 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 | |
| 11 |  F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 | |
| 12 |  US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Wiltz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 | 0 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- BGL Ligue (Relegation)
- Relegation
Official National Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-20.
This season in numbers
The model's National Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 66.4% | 71.4% | +5.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 86.1% | 75.0% | -11.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 58.2% | 66.7% | +8.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 79.1% | 83.3% | +4.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 22 | 63.0% | 77.3% | +14.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled National Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National Division results
- 16 Sept · 19:00Résidence Walferdange2-1US Mondorf-les-bainsNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:00Victoria Rosport1-1Etzella EttelbruckNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:00UNA Strassen2-0US RumelangeNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:00Progres Niederkorn0-0Racing FC Union LuxembourgOver 2.5✗
- 16 Sept · 19:00US Hostert1-1AS Jeunesse EschNo pick
- 16 Sept · 19:00F91 Dudelange2-4UN Kaerjeng 97Over 2.5✓
- 16 Sept · 19:00FC Differdange 033-0Swift HesperangeOver 2.5✓
- 16 Sept · 19:00Atert Bissen4-2WiltzNo pick
- 13 Sept · 15:00US Rumelange0-6Atert BissenNo pick
- 13 Sept · 15:00US Mondorf-les-bains1-2UNA StrassenNo pick
About National Division
National Division is the top flight of Luxembourg football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.44 goals per game over 64 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 67% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 9% drawn. UNA Strassen lead the table on 24 points from 8 games.
How the model handles National Division
Every National Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 47 National Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.0% on average and landing 72.3%. Its best-calibrated National Division market so far is away or draw (79.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled National Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 79.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are National Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.