Virsliga predictions
Latvia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Virsliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Virsliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Virsliga fixtures
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71 | 22 | +49 | 74 | |
| 2 |  Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 | |
| 3 |  Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 30 | +19 | 61 | |
| 4 |  FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 | |
| 5 |  BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 | |
| 6 |  Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 | |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 | |
| 9 |  Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 | |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
Official Virsliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Virsliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 71.4% | 60.0% | -11.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 86.2% | 100.0% | +13.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 12 | 62.7% | 66.7% | +4.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 12 | 81.1% | 83.3% | +2.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 64.8% | 68.8% | +4.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Virsliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Virsliga results
- 20 Sept · 16:00Auda1-1Rīgas FSAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 14:00Tukums1-1GrobiņaNo pick
- 20 Sept · 12:00Ogre United1-0Super NovaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 14:00FS Jelgava0-1RigaAway or Draw✓
- 19 Sept · 12:00FK Liepaja0-0BFC DaugavpilsNo pick
- 16 Sept · 17:00Auda1-0Ogre UnitedHome Win✓
- 15 Sept · 17:00Super Nova0-1RigaAway or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 12:00BFC Daugavpils1-2Rīgas FSAway or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 12:00Grobiņa0-0FS JelgavaNo pick
- 11 Sept · 16:00Riga2-2AudaHome Win✗
About Virsliga
Virsliga is the top flight of Latvia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.84 goals per game over 154 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 24% drawn. Rīgas FS lead the table on 74 points from 30 games.
How the model handles Virsliga
Every Virsliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 60 Virsliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.3% on average and landing 75.0%. Its best-calibrated Virsliga market so far is away or draw (81.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Virsliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Virsliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Virsliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Virsliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 81.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Virsliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Virsliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.