Úrvalsdeild predictions
Iceland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Úrvalsdeild match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Úrvalsdeild in the Bet Finder.
This week's Úrvalsdeild fixtures
- 10 Oct · 15:00StjarnanvKA AkureyriNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Thor AkureyrivIBV VestmannaeyjarNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 15:00Valur ReykjavikvFH hafnarfjordurNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 20:15Fram ReykjavikvKR ReykjavikNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:15BreidablikvKeflavikNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 20:15Vikingur ReykjavikvIA AkranesNo pick yet
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 | |
| 2 |  Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 | |
| 3 |  KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 | |
| 4 |  Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 | |
| 5 |  IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 | |
| 6 |  Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 | |
| 7 |  Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 | |
| 8 |  Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 | |
| 9 |  FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 | |
| 10 |  Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 | |
| 11 |  KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 | |
| 12 |  IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
Official Úrvalsdeild table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Úrvalsdeild record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 14 | 66.6% | 57.1% | -9.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 11 | 85.1% | 100.0% | +14.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 62.0% | 33.3% | -28.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 79.3% | 66.7% | -12.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 50 | 65.5% | 66.0% | +0.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 16 | 65.0% | 75.0% | +10.0 |
Settled Úrvalsdeild matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Úrvalsdeild results
- 20 Sept · 17:00IBV Vestmannaeyjar1-1Valur ReykjavikOver 2.5✗
- 20 Sept · 17:00FH hafnarfjordur5-2StjarnanBTTS✓
- 20 Sept · 17:00Keflavik2-2Fram ReykjavikNo pick
- 20 Sept · 17:00IA Akranes4-1BreidablikOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 20:30KA Akureyri3-0Thor AkureyriOver 2.5✓
- 19 Sept · 15:00KR Reykjavik1-2Vikingur ReykjavikOver 2.5✓
- 15 Sept · 20:15Fram Reykjavik1-3BreidablikBTTS✓
- 14 Sept · 20:15Vikingur Reykjavik4-1KeflavikOver 2.5✓
- 13 Sept · 15:00Valur Reykjavik4-1Thor AkureyriOver 2.5✓
- 13 Sept · 15:00Stjarnan2-0IBV VestmannaeyjarBTTS✗
About Úrvalsdeild
Úrvalsdeild is the top flight of Iceland football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.88 goals per game over 144 matches: both teams scored in 72%, 70% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 23% drawn. Vikingur Reykjavik lead the table on 53 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Úrvalsdeild
Every Úrvalsdeild fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 97 Úrvalsdeild tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.1% on average and landing 69.1%. Its best-calibrated Úrvalsdeild market so far is over 2.5 (65.5% claimed against 66.0% hit over 50 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Úrvalsdeild predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Úrvalsdeild table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Úrvalsdeild market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Úrvalsdeild tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 65.5% claimed against 66.0% hit over 50 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Úrvalsdeild fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Úrvalsdeild by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.