NB I predictions
Hungary · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every NB I match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter NB I in the Bet Finder.
This week's NB I fixtures
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Puskas Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Budapest Honved | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation
Official NB I table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's NB I record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 64.1% | 0.0% | -64.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.3% | 62.5% | -19.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 57.1% | 40.0% | -17.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 78.3% | 80.0% | +1.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 11 | 59.1% | 54.5% | -4.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled NB I matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent NB I results
- 20 Sept · 18:30Nyiregyhaza1-1Ferencvarosi TCAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 16:00Ujpest2-1Zalaegerszegi TEOver 2.5✓
- 20 Sept · 13:40MTK Budapest1-2Gyori ETO FCNo pick
- 19 Sept · 18:30Debreceni VSC2-4VasasHome or Draw✗
- 19 Sept · 16:00Kisvarda FC0-1PaksOver 2.5✗
- 18 Sept · 18:30Puskas Academy3-1Budapest HonvedNo pick
- 6 Sept · 19:00Gyori ETO FC3-2Budapest HonvedNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:45Ferencvarosi TC2-2UjpestHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 14:30Zalaegerszegi TE1-0Puskas AcademyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 19:00Paks2-4Debreceni VSCOver 2.5✓
About NB I
NB I is the top flight of Hungary football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.26 goals per game over 47 matches: both teams scored in 66%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 28% drawn. Gyori ETO FC lead the table on 15 points from 8 games.
How the model handles NB I
Every NB I fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 33 NB I tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.9% on average and landing 51.5%. Its best-calibrated NB I market so far is away or draw (78.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these NB I predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the NB I table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which NB I market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled NB I tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 78.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are NB I fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter NB I by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.