Liga Nacional predictions
Honduras · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 22 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Nacional in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Nacional fixtures
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Espana | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 18 | |
| 2 |  CD Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 17 | |
| 3 |  CD Marathon | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 17 | |
| 4 |  CD Motagua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Génesis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Olancho | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Atletico Independiente | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Atlético Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Juticalpa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Platense FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 5 |
Official Liga Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-22.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Nacional record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 66.1% | 100.0% | +33.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 85.6% | 100.0% | +14.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 55.1% | 100.0% | +44.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 78.7% | 100.0% | +21.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.9% | 66.7% | +5.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Nacional matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Nacional results
- 21 Sept · 2:30Juticalpa3-2CD MarathonNo pick
- 21 Sept · 0:15CD Olimpia4-0Atletico IndependienteNo pick
- 20 Sept · 2:30Real Espana1-0CD MotaguaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 22:30Génesis0-0OlanchoNo pick
- 19 Sept · 2:30Atlético Choloma2-0Estrella RojaNo pick
- 18 Sept · 22:00Platense FC0-2Lobos UpnfmNo pick
- 14 Sept · 2:30Atletico Independiente2-1JuticalpaNo pick
- 14 Sept · 0:15CD Marathon1-0CD OlimpiaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 22:00Lobos Upnfm1-0Atlético CholomaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 2:30CD Motagua1-0GénesisHome or Draw✓
About Liga Nacional
Liga Nacional is the top flight of Honduras football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.50 goals per game over 48 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 44% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 54% with 27% drawn. Real Espana lead the table on 18 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Liga Nacional
Every Liga Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 19 Liga Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.5% on average and landing 94.7%. Its best-calibrated Liga Nacional market so far is home or draw (85.6% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Nacional predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Nacional table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Nacional market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.6% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Nacional fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.