Premier League predictions
Ethiopia · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 8 Jul
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 9 Oct · 13:00Mebrat HaylvAdama KenemaNo pick yet
- 9 Oct · 14:00Halaba KetemavWelwalo Adigrat UniNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 13:00Kedus GiorgisvNegelle ArsiNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 14:00Welayta DichavFasil KetemaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00Ethiopia BunnavSheger KetemaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00Hadiya HosaenavBahardarNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 13:00Awassa KenemavMekelakeyaNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 14:00Gamo ChenchavEthiopian MedhinNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 16:00Sidama BunnavEthiopia Nigd BankNo pick yet
Premier League tablefinal table, last season
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 23 | +20 | 68 | |
| 2 |  Negelle Arsi | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 60 | |
| 3 |  Mekelakeya | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 57 | |
| 4 |  Fasil Ketema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 55 | |
| 5 |  Mebrat Hayl | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 54 | |
| 6 |  Kedus Giorgis | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 54 | |
| 7 |  Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 51 | |
| 8 |  Ethiopia Bunna | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 51 | |
| 9 |  Awassa Kenema | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 50 | |
| 10 |  Sheger Ketema | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 50 | |
| 11 |  Bahardar | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 48 | |
| 12 |  Hadiya Hosaena | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 48 | |
| 13 |  Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 47 | |
| 14 |  Ethiopian Medhin | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 46 | |
| 15 |  Adama Kenema | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 46 | |
| 16 |  Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 46 | |
| 17 |  Suhul Shire | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 42 | |
| 18 |  Dire Dawa Kenema | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 42 | |
| 19 |  Mekelle Kenema | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 40 | |
| 20 |  Arba Minch Kenema | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 35 |
- Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
- Relegation
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-07-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
Not enough settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Premier League results
- 5 Jul · 14:00Sidama Bunna0-1Mebrat HaylDraw✗
- 3 Jul · 14:00Mekelakeya0-0Hadiya HosaenaDraw✓
- 3 Jul · 11:00Welayta Dicha0-0Ethiopia BunnaDraw✓
- 3 Jul · 8:00Ethiopia Nigd Bank2-2BahardarNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Suhul Shire0-2Sheger KetemaNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Awassa Kenema2-3Adama KenemaNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Welwalo Adigrat Uni1-1Kedus GiorgisNo pick
- 1 Jul · 16:00Fasil Ketema1-0Ethiopian MedhinNo pick
- 1 Jul · 13:00Mekelle Kenema3-0Negelle ArsiNo pick
- 1 Jul · 13:00Dire Dawa Kenema2-1Arba Minch KenemaDraw✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Ethiopia football with 20 teams. The 2025/26 season has produced 1.78 goals per game over 380 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 28% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 31% with 40% drawn. Sidama Bunna lead the table on 68 points from 38 games (final 2025/26 table — the new season's table appears once it has been played).
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Premier League tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.