Meistriliiga predictions
Estonia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Meistriliiga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Meistriliiga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Meistriliiga fixtures
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 81 | 21 | +60 | 72 | |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 55 | |
| 3 |  Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 51 | |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 50 | |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 | |
| 6 |  Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 | |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 | |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 | |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Meistriliiga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Esiliiga
Official Meistriliiga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Meistriliiga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 17 | 71.6% | 82.4% | +10.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 17 | 87.3% | 82.4% | -4.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 12 | 65.4% | 50.0% | -15.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 12 | 82.9% | 83.3% | +0.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 23 | 62.3% | 73.9% | +11.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Meistriliiga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Meistriliiga results
- 20 Sept · 17:00Flora Tallinn3-2VaprusHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 15:00Trans Narva1-1FC Levadia TallinnAway or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 12:30Tammeka1-3Kalju NommeNo pick
- 19 Sept · 15:00Nõmme United1-3PaideAway or Draw✓
- 18 Sept · 17:00Laagri0-0KuressaareNo pick
- 17 Sept · 17:00FC Levadia Tallinn6-0TammekaHome or Draw✓
- 16 Sept · 17:00Paide2-0VaprusHome or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 15:00Kuressaare1-3TammekaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 12:30Paide1-2LaagriHome or Draw✗
- 12 Sept · 15:00Nõmme United2-3Flora TallinnAway or Draw✓
About Meistriliiga
Meistriliiga is the top flight of Estonia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.14 goals per game over 145 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 66% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 12% drawn. FC Levadia Tallinn lead the table on 72 points from 29 games.
How the model handles Meistriliiga
Every Meistriliiga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 82 Meistriliiga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.9% on average and landing 75.6%. Its best-calibrated Meistriliiga market so far is away or draw (82.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Meistriliiga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Meistriliiga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Meistriliiga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Meistriliiga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 82.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Meistriliiga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Meistriliiga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.