Primera Division predictions
El Salvador · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 2 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera Division fixtures
- 4 Oct · 22:00PlatensevMunicipal LimeñoDrawModerate
- 5 Oct · 0:00IntervFuerte San FranciscoHome or DrawSolid
- 5 Oct · 2:00FASvInca ArubaNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 1:00Inca ArubavPlatenseNo pick yet
- 10 Oct · 22:00Fuerte San FranciscovCacahuatiqueNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 2:00AlianzavInterNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 22:00ÁguilavIsidro MetapánNo pick yet
- 11 Oct · 22:00Atletico BalboavFASNo pick yet
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 24 | |
| 2 |  FAS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 | |
| 3 |  Isidro Metapán | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 23 | |
| 4 |  Inter | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Alianza | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Águila | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 17 | |
| 7 |  Municipal Limeño | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 17 | |
| 8 |  Inca Aruba | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 15 | |
| 9 |  Platense | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 13 | |
| 10 |  Atletico Balboa | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 13 | |
| 11 |  Cacahuatique | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 8 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Official Primera Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-02.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 63.7% | 80.0% | +16.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.2% | 100.0% | +47.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.7% | 100.0% | +22.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 60.6% | 100.0% | +39.4 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera Division results
- 4 Oct · 2:00Alianza2-2FirpoNo pick
- 4 Oct · 0:00Isidro Metapán3-2Atletico BalboaNo pick
- 3 Oct · 22:00Águila4-1CacahuatiqueHome Win✓
- 2 Oct · 1:00Inca Aruba2-1Municipal LimeñoNo pick
- 1 Oct · 22:30Fuerte San Francisco0-3FirpoAway or Draw✓
- 1 Oct · 1:00Alianza2-1PlatenseHome or Draw✓
- 30 Sept · 22:30Águila2-1InterNo pick
- 29 Sept · 22:00Atletico Balboa0-2CacahuatiqueNo pick
- 28 Sept · 0:00Municipal Limeño1-3FASNo pick
- 27 Sept · 22:00Platense0-0Fuerte San FranciscoDraw✓
About Primera Division
Primera Division is the top flight of El Salvador football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.59 goals per game over 78 matches: both teams scored in 51%, 49% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 31% drawn. Firpo lead the table on 24 points from 12 games.
How the model handles Primera Division
Every Primera Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 13 Primera Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.0% on average and landing 92.3%. Its best-calibrated Primera Division market so far is home or draw (85.5% claimed against 100.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.5% claimed against 100.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.