1. Division predictions
Cyprus · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 24 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Division fixtures
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 | |
| 2 |  AEL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 | |
| 3 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 | |
| 4 |  Pafos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Apollon Limassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 | |
| 8 |  Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Olympiakos | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Nea Salamis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | |
| 12 |  Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | |
| 13 |  Anorthosis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
- Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
- Cyprus League (Relegation Group)
Official 1. Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-24.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 66.2% | 25.0% | -41.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 85.0% | 75.0% | -10.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 58.7% | 100.0% | +41.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled 1. Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Division results
- 20 Sept · 18:00Omonia Aradippou1-1OlympiakosDraw✓
- 20 Sept · 17:00Omonia Nicosia4-1Krasava YpsonasHome or Draw✓
- 20 Sept · 17:00Aris0-0KarmiotissaNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:00Nea Salamis3-0AnorthosisNo pick
- 19 Sept · 17:00Apollon Limassol2-2Apoel NicosiaNo pick
- 18 Sept · 18:00Pafos0-2AELHome or Draw✗
- 18 Sept · 18:00Omonia 29is Maiou1-2AEK LarnacaAway or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 18:00Krasava Ypsonas0-1ArisNo pick
- 13 Sept · 18:00Olympiakos3-3Omonia 29is MaiouNo pick
- 13 Sept · 17:00AEK Larnaca0-1PafosNo pick
About 1. Division
1. Division is the top flight of Cyprus football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 28 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 32% with 39% drawn. AEK Larnaca lead the table on 9 points from 4 games.
How the model handles 1. Division
Every 1. Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 13 1. Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.9% on average and landing 69.2%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Division market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled 1. Division tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are 1. Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.