Primera División predictions
Bolivia · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 20 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Always Ready | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 47 | 13 | +34 | 45 | |
| 2 |  Bolívar | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 22 | +32 | 45 | |
| 3 |  The Strongest | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 42 | |
| 4 |  Real Potosí | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 32 | |
| 5 |  Oriente Petrolero | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 30 | |
| 6 |  Aurora | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 30 | |
| 7 |  Guabirá | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Blooming | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 27 | |
| 9 |  Nacional Potosí | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 27 | |
| 10 |  Independiente Petrolero | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 25 | |
| 11 |  Real Oruro | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 21 | |
| 12 |  ABB | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 20 | |
| 13 |  San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 20 | |
| 14 |  Universitario de Vinto | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 18 | |
| 15 |  Real Tomayapo | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 16 | |
| 16 |  Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 14 |
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-20.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 23 | 69.3% | 65.2% | -4.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 24 | 85.4% | 87.5% | +2.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 56.7% | 100.0% | +43.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 77.4% | 100.0% | +22.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 26 | 64.0% | 88.5% | +24.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 19 Sept · 0:15Independiente Petrolero1-3San Antonio Bulo BuloNo pick
- 18 Sept · 1:30Bolívar4-2Gualberto Villarroel SJHome or Draw✓
- 17 Sept · 23:00Real Tomayapo0-2Oriente PetroleroNo pick
- 17 Sept · 1:30Blooming1-1Universitario de VintoHome Win✗
- 16 Sept · 23:00Nacional Potosí0-4Always ReadyNo pick
- 16 Sept · 20:00Guabirá3-1AuroraNo pick
- 15 Sept · 22:15ABB1-2The StrongestAway or Draw✓
- 15 Sept · 20:00Real Oruro0-2Real PotosíNo pick
- 14 Sept · 1:00Real Tomayapo1-2BolívarAway or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 22:15Universitario de Vinto3-1Independiente PetroleroNo pick
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Bolivia football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.12 goals per game over 160 matches: both teams scored in 62%, 63% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 24% drawn. Always Ready lead the table on 45 points from 20 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 83 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.0% on average and landing 83.1%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home or draw (85.4% claimed against 87.5% hit over 24 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.4% claimed against 87.5% hit over 24 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.